Jon Ossoff Mike Collins Poll: Jon Ossoff Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Mike Collins in Georgia Senate Race, New Poll Shows
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Georgia’s U.S. Senate contest is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 cycle, and the early numbers tell a complicated story for both parties.
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A Fox News survey of registered voters puts Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican challenger Mike Collins by 13 points, 56% to 43%. That margin is built on a coalition that includes 96% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and a notable 24% of non-MAGA Republicans who say they plan to cross party lines to back the incumbent.
Where Ossoff’s strength comes from
The numbers reflect more than simple party loyalty. Ossoff is running well above typical Democratic baselines with Black voters at 87%, voters under 30 at 68%, moderates at 66%, and women under 45 at 66%. Those are the kinds of cross-demographic numbers that tend to hold up even when a race tightens in the final stretch.
His advantage on voter concerns like inflation is also significant. In past cycles, economic anxiety has been a reliable drag on incumbents. That it appears to be working in Ossoff’s favor, at least at this stage, suggests he has made meaningful inroads on the issue.
The Republican field is still unsettled
Collins may be leading the GOP primary field, but the Republican side of this race has a real consolidation problem. A separate poll conducted by Quantus Insights in mid-September, surveying 624 likely registered voters, found Ossoff sitting at 47% approval and 37% disapproval, numbers that suggest real vulnerability for an incumbent. The catch is that six in ten voters surveyed could not name which Republican has the best shot at beating him.
Collins holds the strongest early position among GOP contenders, with Rep. Buddy Carter close behind and former football coach Derek Dooley lagging on electability despite name recognition. As long as the Republican primary remains a three-way split, none of the candidates can build the momentum needed to run a credible general election campaign.
What the gap actually means
An earlier poll told a different story. A separate survey released this week showed Collins holding Ossoff to a statistical tie, a result the Collins campaign pointed to as evidence of grassroots energy heading into the primary. That kind of polling spread, from a tie to a 13-point deficit depending on the survey, is a sign that the race is genuinely unsettled and that methodology and timing matter enormously right now.
Georgia was carried by Donald Trump, making it one of only two states where a Democratic incumbent is defending a seat in Trump-won territory, alongside Michigan. Republicans see that as a real opening. Democrats, for their part, are counting on the state’s shifting demographics and Ossoff’s incumbency advantages to hold the line.
The primary will go a long way toward determining whether any of this polling actually matters. Until Republicans coalesce around a single candidate, the general election numbers are more a measure of Ossoff’s ceiling than a true read on the race.
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